Short answer
A comparable official figure of about 41% covers January to September 2025, not the full calendar year. Third-party analyses may use different periods and categories, so historical rates cannot predict an individual result.
Detailed answer
A comparable official overall approval figure of about 41% covers January through September 2025 rather than the full 2025 calendar year. Some third-party analyses reported changes in early 2026 and differences by study level, but those figures may use different periods, samples, nationalities and classification methods. They should not be combined to imply that choosing one credential would change the same applicant's probability by a fixed amount.
Historical approval rates are background information only. IRCC assesses each application on eligibility, finances, study purpose, supporting evidence and the rules in force when the application is submitted.
Official sources
Last updated: 2026-09-01